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Economic Forecasting Techniques

Code 12431
Year 1
Semester S2
ECTS Credits 6
Workload OT(15H)/TP(30H)
Scientific area Economics
Entry requirements N.A.
Mode of delivery Face-to-face
Work placements Not applicable
Learning outcomes To learn the importance of forecasting economic magnitudes or variables
To learn some of the more important techniques of forecasting economic variables, either in the short, medium, long
and very long terms
To learn how to deal with seasonality in forecasting economic variables
To learn how to do forecasts in the short, medium, long and very long terms.
To learn how to forecast several variables at the same time using VAR and VAR/ECM (VECM) methods
Syllabus Introduction to forecasting economic variables and to select economic models necessary to economic forecasting
Traditional decomposition of a time series in order to use it with forecasting ends: methods for estimating trends and
seasonal, cyclic and irregular or random Effects
Forecasting using simple and multiple regression models
Forecasting with advanced models: Box-Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models
Forecasting time series with aditive and multiplicative seasonality
Forecasting with VAR e VAR/ECM Models
Main Bibliography • Manso, J R Pires (2009). Previsão de Séries Cronológicas (sebenta), ed. policopiada, UBI
• Makridakis, S. et alii (1998). Forecasting Methods and applications, 3rd ed. Wiley
• DeLurgio, Stephen A. (1998). Forecasting Principles and Applications, MacGraw-Hill International Editions, Statistics
& Probability Series
• Manso, J R Pires (1996). Estatística Descritiva e Previsão, 2ª ed. UBI/autor
• Manso, J R Pires (1998). Curso de Econometria, ed. UBI
• Wilson, J. H. et alii. (2002). Business Forecasting, 4rd ed., MacGraw-Hill/Irvin
• Imad, A. Moosa (2000). Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications (Finance and Capital Markets) isbn
0333736443, MacMillan
• A. Reza Hoshmand (2009). Business Forecasting Methods - A Practical Approach, 2nd ed, Routlege
• Brockwell, P. e Davis, R. A. (2002), Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, 2nd ed., Springer
Teaching Methodologies and Assessment Criteria The subject is taught using a practical approach, always in the Informatics Laboratory using continuously adequate econometric software. In the exposition process we use frequently to project Power-point slides. In the economic and econometric applications we use data imported from national and international databanks that we introduce in the system in order to estimate the models, to do statistical tests, to do economical interpretations of the results and to
forecast the economic magnitudes either in the short, medium, long and very long terms.
Language Portuguese. Tutorial support is available in English.
Last updated on: 2019-12-02

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